The global economic recession is turning out to be less severe than feared but governments should not withdraw their fiscal stimulus because the path ahead is perilous, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday.

“While the global economy is coming back, the ascent will likely be long, uneven, and uncertain,” the international financial agency said, in its latest World Economic Outlook.

Since the summer, prospects have worsened significantly for some emerging and developing economies where coronavirus infections are rising rapidly.

For 2021, the IMF cut its global economic forecast for 2021 to a 5.2% growth rate from the prior 5.4% growth rate.

For 2022 and beyond, the global economy is expected to “moderate significantly” starting in 2022, the IMF said.

“Both advanced and emerging market economies are likely to register significant losses of output relative to their pre-pandemic forecasts,” said IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath, in a statement accompanying the report.

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(RTTNews) – Global economy is set to contract less severely than feared initially, due to better-than-expected outcomes in the main economies in the second quarter despite the lockdowns to battle the coronavirus pandemic, but the outlook remains clouded with uncertainty, especially for the emerging markets, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday.

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the lender forecast 4.4 percent contraction for the world economy this year, which was less severe than the 5.2 percent decline seen in June.

“This upgrade owes to somewhat less dire outcomes in the second quarter, as well as signs of a stronger recovery in the third quarter, offset partly by downgrades in some emerging and developing economies,” IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said.

The global economy is expected to rebound with 5.2 percent growth next year, which was less than the 5.4 percent expansion seen earlier.

Economic output is forecast to be

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The International Monetary Fund announced on Tuesday new economic projections that mix both slightly better news for the short term and not-so-good news for the long term, as the coronavirus pandemic continues to hinder global growth.

The organization’s latest World Economic Outlook projects a global decline of 4.4% in 2020 – painting a rosier picture compared to its last update in June, when a 4.9% contraction was projected. The improved forecast reflects both better-than-expected second quarters – mostly for advanced economies – and indicators of strong recovery in the third quarter, according to the report.

A return to growth among advanced economies and China helped drive the revisions, the report notes. Chinese officials said on Tuesday that the country’s growth in exports accelerated in September, buoyed by a global demand for masks and medical supplies.

But the IMF also again downgraded its global outlook for 2021, projecting growth

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Coronavirus and the possibility of second lockdowns is sure to give markets the jitters. Photo: Getty
Coronavirus and the possibility of second lockdowns is sure to give markets the jitters. Photo: Getty

Markets will be steered by coronavirus infection rates and whether fresh data will show a resurgent impact of COVID-19 on the global economy.

Meanwhile, investors will also eye the politics and stimulus talks in the run up to the US presidential election.

All focus will be on the closely followed International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) World Economic Outlook report, with expectations of a modest upgrade in 2020 figures to -4.9% and +5.4% in 2021.

“While we may see a modest upgrade to the 2020 number, expect much focus on the downside risk to the 2021 figure based on second wave challenges. A concerted push for fresh fiscal stimulus from central bank speakers looks likely too,” analysts at ING said.

On Tuesday, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) will release its latest analysis of

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(Bloomberg) — The guardians of the global economy will gather this week under the cloud of the worst recession since the Great Depression, and a recovery dependent on scientists finding a coronavirus vaccine.

The International Monetary Fund and World Bank will hold their annual meetings, with both calling on the Group of 20 largest economies to extend a freeze in debt payments from the world’s poorest nations that’s set to expire at year end.

While the fund last month flagged a “small upward revision” to its 2020 growth forecast from its June outlook, it warned the rebound will be long and uneven.



chart, line chart: Goodbye V, Hello L


© Bloomberg
Goodbye V, Hello L

The IMF has been encouraging governments to spend whatever they need to confront the crisis, even while warning that debt as a percentage of GDP will rise to about 100% for the first time.

Fund officials earlier this month proposed reforms to

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  • Reversing lockdown measures while cases remain elevated is unlikely to drive a robust economic recovery, the International Monetary Fund said in a Thursday blog post.
  • Researchers at the organization found that voluntary quarantining plays a substantial role in stifling a rebound as fears of contracting the coronavirus keeps consumers from boosting economic activity.
  • While lockdowns present some short-term costs, they “may lead to a faster economic recovery as they lower infections and thus the extent of voluntary social distancing,” the team wrote.
  • Addressing the health crisis “appears to be a pre-condition to allow for a strong and sustained economic recovery,” the IMF added.
  • Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.

Ending lockdowns while coronavirus cases remain elevated is unlikely to accelerate economic growth and poses new dangers, the International Monetary Fund said Thursday.

Researchers at the organization found that although quarantine orders contributed to the second quarter’s historic drop in

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Early lockdowns in an epidemic can substantially reduce infections, and policymakers should be wary of lifting them to jumpstart their economies when infections remain high, the International Monetary Fund said on Thursday.



a close up of a logo: FILE PHOTO: FILE PHOTO: International Monetary Fund logo is seen outside the headquarters building


© Reuters/YURI GRIPAS
FILE PHOTO: FILE PHOTO: International Monetary Fund logo is seen outside the headquarters building

The COVID-19 pandemic showed that government lockdowns succeeded in lowering infections, the IMF wrote in a chapter of its forthcoming World Economic Outlook, but they also contributed to the recession and hit vulnerable groups such as women and young people particularly hard.

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Voluntary social distancing driven by fears of contracting the disease also contributed heavily to the recession and was unlikely to recede if lockdowns were lifted while cases remained elevated, the researchers warned.

“Addressing the health risks appears to be a pre-condition to allow for a strong and sustained economic recovery,” wrote IMF economists Francesco

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Brazil’s economy is set to shrink by 5.8 percent in 2020, the International Monetary Fund said Monday, revising up an earlier forecast but warning the country faced “excpetionally high” risks.

“The economy is projected to shrink by 5.8 percent in 2020, followed by a partial recovery to 2.8 percent in 2021,” the IMF said in its annual report on Latin America’s largest economy.

The report released Monday revised upwards the more pessimistic forecast of a 9.1 percent contraction in June.

Aerial view showing factories at the Manaus Duty Free Zone (ZFM), Amazonas state, Brazil, in September 2020 Aerial view showing factories at the Manaus Duty Free Zone (ZFM), Amazonas state, Brazil, in September 2020 Photo: AFP / Michael DANTAS

It praised the right-wing government of President Jair Bolsonaro for its “swift and substantial” response to the economic crisis prompted by the coronavirus pandemic.

The government increased health spending, boosted financial support for state governments, extended state-backed credit lines and introduced employment retention schemes, which helped protect formal

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The global economy is showing signs of bouncing back from the severe downturn caused by the global coronavirus pandemic, but a full recovery is “unlikely” without a vaccine, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said Wednesday.

In a column co-authored with IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath, the officials stressed that governments should continue to support workers and businesses since the unprecedented nature of the crisis could give rise to a wave of bankruptcies and job destruction.

As lockdowns have eased and businesses around the world have been allowed to reopen, there has been a “sharp rebound of output, consumption and employment,” they said in Foreign Policy magazine.

The massive scale and speed of government support has helped cushion the blow and allowed for the initial rebound, Gopinath and Georgieva wrote.

“This crisis, however, is far from over,” they said. “The recovery remains very fragile and uneven across regions and sectors. To ensure

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SAN JOSE (Reuters) – Costa Rica’s government said on Saturday it has requested $1.75 billion in financial assistance over three years from the International Monetary Fund as the Central American nation’s economy has been reeling from the coronavirus pandemic.

On July 12, Costa Rican President Carlos Alvarado said his administration would begin negotiations with the IMF to access a financial aid package to help offset the economic blow from COVID-19. Details about the size of the aid package were not disclosed at the time.

In a letter dated Aug. 29 and addressed to IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, Costa Rica’s central bank president Rodrigo Cubero and finance minister Elian Villegas requested financial aid “in the form of a 3-year arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility,” equivalent to $1.75 billion.

“Despite our proactive policy efforts, the combined impact of the global shock and domestic containment measures on our country’s balance of

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