Editor’s note: Originally published at tsi-blog.com on Oct. 13, 2020.

I discussed the relationship between gold and inflation expectations a couple of times in blog posts last year (HERE and HERE). Contrary to popular opinion, gold tends to perform relatively poorly when inflation expectations are rising and relatively well when inflation expectations are falling.

The relationship is illustrated by the chart displayed below. The chart shows that over the past seven years, there has been a strong positive correlation between RINF, an ETF designed to move in the same direction as the expected CPI, and the commodity/gold ratio (the S&P Spot Commodity Index divided by the US$ gold price). In other words, the chart shows that a broad basket of commodities outperformed gold during periods when inflation expectations were rising and underperformed gold during periods when inflation expectations were falling.

This year, inflation expectations crashed during February-March in reaction to

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ELKO, Nev., Oct. 13, 2020 /PRNewswire/ — U.S. Gold Corp. (NASDAQ: USAU) (the “Company”), a gold exploration and development company, today announced that it has issued a letter to its shareholders outlining the Company’s recent and expected milestones, as it continues to advance its assets and projects.

Recent Company highlights include:

  • Acquisition of Northern Panther Resource Corporation, which provided USAU with the Challis Gold Project in Idaho, additional capital and some key industry shareholders
  • Strengthening of the management team with the appointments of George Bee as President and Eric Alexander as CFO
  • Commencement of the CK Gold Project Pre-Feasibility Study

“This year has been anything but normal with the ongoing upheavals caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, but I’m proud that U.S. Gold Corp. has continued to push forward and advance our portfolio like the CK Gold Project and grow our business with the acquisition of Northern Panther,” stated

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Gold bullion bars after being polished at the ABC Refinery in Sydney on August 5, 2020.


DAVID GRAY/AFP/Getty Images

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Gold was up by close to 40% for the year when it hit a record high in August, but it has since nearly halved that gain, and some analysts say a move to fresh all-time highs in the final quarter may be out of reach for the precious metal.

“Gold has enjoyed a meteoric rise this year, hitting a record in early August on the back of a weak dollar and continued [Federal Reserve] support,” says Matt Orton, vice president at Carillon Tower Advisers. The Fed actions drove real rates lower, “making cash and Treasuries much less attractive, and gold a better alternative.”

Futures prices for the precious metal settled at a record $2,069.40 an ounce on Aug. 6. On Oct. 7, it settled at $1,890.80, up 24% year

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By Fathin Ungku and Ernest Scheyder



a group of people walking in the snow: FILE PHOTO: Freeport workers gather around security gate at at Grasberg mine area in Tembagapura


© Reuters/Muhammad Yamin
FILE PHOTO: Freeport workers gather around security gate at at Grasberg mine area in Tembagapura


SINGAPORE/HOUSTON (Reuters) – When miners at Indonesia’s giant Grasberg gold and copper mine started testing positive for coronavirus early in the pandemic, the mountain-top mining complex was quickly locked down with a skeletal staff left in place to maintain production.But as months of travel curbs dragged on, angry workers blockaded the mine for four days in August until the operator – a unit of U.S. miner Freeport McMoRan Inc – relented and let them resume weekly rotations out of the site via a four-hour trek by cable car and bus to towns below.

Now the workers are happier, but health experts fear the greater risk of a new outbreak.

The tensions expose the balancing act to maintain output at full blast, while containing COVID-19 in mines

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By Stephen Culp

NEW YORK (Reuters) – International stocks rose on Friday, with all three major Wall Street indexes posting weekly gains as investors grew more hopeful the U.S. government would provide additional economic stimulus.

Gold jumped and the dollar dropped as investors focused on the probability of forthcoming U.S. coronavirus relief.

Wrangling in Washington over pandemic aid has dominated global markets this week, and although U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin failed to hammer out a deal, talks will continue despite Republican doubts.

Trump said in an interview on Friday that he wants to see a bigger stimulus package than either Democrats or Republicans were offering, a reversal from his threats at the beginning of the week that he would halt negotiations.

“We’re in one of those periods where Washington is driving Wall Street, be it either the presidential election or fiscal stimulus and today

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Nervous investors have bought more than 1,000 tonnes of gold this year, a record figure equivalent to the entire hoard the Swiss National Bank has stashed away in its vaults.

For centuries people have considered gold a store of value in turbulent times. In 2020 they have been buying it in droves.

Gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) recorded their tenth consecutive month of positive inflows in September for only the third time since the financial crisis. This was despite gold experiencing its biggest monthly price drop since November 2016, falling 3.6%, after reaching a new all-time high in August.

With concerns mounting about the outcome of the upcoming U.S. election and a second wave of coronavirus infections, will the precious metal retain its lustre in the fourth quarter?

Investors certainly believe so. Figures this week from

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Centerra Gold (OTCPK:CAGDF) is a diversified mid-tier gold producer that operates their flagship Kumtor mine in Kyrgyzstan, Mount Milligan in Canada and the new Oksut operation in Turkey. The company’s share price was hit hard on Tuesday after reporting on civil unrest in Kyrgyzstan following disputed election results, sending the stock down 15%.

Looking at the share price performance over the past year, it’s clear to see the company has underperformed its peer group and the gold miners index (NYSEARCA:GDX) since a poor Q3 result last October. Since then, the company has reported two positive quarters that led to its share price starting to catch up to the sector, but further uncertainty at Kumtor has now caused it to slump again.

One-year share price performance

(Source: YCharts)

Kumtor: A World-Class Mine In the Wrong Place

Kumtor is by far the company’s most important asset, churning out between 550,000 and 600,000

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Pretium Resources (NYSE:PVG) is a mid-tier gold producer that operates the high-grade Brucejack mine in British Columbia, Canada. Brucejack is one of the newest and highest grade mines in the sector, but has been plagued by volatile operational performance since going into production in mid-2017. After widely missing guidance in 2019, management released an updated reserve and mine life in the first quarter of this year that showed lower grades and production, sending the stock tumbling further.

Despite these challenges, the company has been surprisingly consistent in generating free cash flow and reported a record second quarter that sent its shares up 25% in one day. With gold prices now hovering around $1,900 per ounce, Brucejack could be one of the most profitable independent assets in a tier-one jurisdiction, making it an attractive takeover target for larger producers looking to grow production.

Looking at a five-year chart, it’s clear that

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Figure 1

Golden Hill Property – Prospect Location Plan Map
Golden Hill Property – Prospect Location Plan Map
Golden Hill Property – Prospect Location Plan Map

Mine license application expected to be submitted by yearend;
$15 million earmarked through 2021 for drilling

(All amounts are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise stated)

TORONTO, Oct. 05, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Teranga Gold Corporation (“Teranga” or the “Company”) (TSX: TGZ, OTCQX:TGCDF) is pleased to update the mineral resource estimate for Golden Hill, an advanced-stage exploration project located in southwest Burkina Faso within the central part of the Houndé Greenstone Belt, a highly mineralized gold region that hosts three operating gold mines.

Wholly-owned by Teranga, Golden Hill is a key component of the Company’s growth pipeline and has delivered multiple near-surface, high-grade, oxide gold discoveries transitioning into fresh hosted structurally controlled mineralization extending to considerable depths well below the oxide component of these mineralized bodies.

Golden Hill

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Wall Street opened sharply lower on Trump uncertainty, when he tested positive for COVID-19. The news upended the looming US presidential election campaign. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US only added 661,000 jobs monthly through mid-September compared to the consensus forecast of 850,000. Government stimulus is running out and the virus is again spreading more easily as the summer ends and people are more likely to stay inside with others.

Courtesy: Ticker Tocker

The government stimulus response in March was only a fraction of what the market and the economy appeared to need. In March, the Fed and the Treasury joined their balance sheets and planned to allocate up to 10% of GDP to the crisis. That is about $20 trillion, which is triple the stimulus that was provided in March. Then we saw a dead-cat bounce in the economy. The Fed appeared to provide some confidence,

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