Given that so much of how the coronavirus pandemic will unfold remains uncertain, budget assumptions are more critical than ever.
The economic statement delivered by the treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, on Tuesday assumes that a lot of things will go right, including that a vaccine will be available next year and that further outbreaks in Australia can be locally contained.
While a big economic rebound is forecast next year, Treasury officials imply this should be taken with a grain of salt, warning of “substantial uncertainty around the global and domestic outlook”.
Here is a rundown of the key numbers, predictions and assumptions from the 2020 federal budget 2020.
Unsurprisingly, there will be a big hit to the economy this year. What is surprising is the pace of the recovery as assumed by the Treasury.
The budget papers say real GDP is expected to fall by 3.75% in the 2020