Britain’s economy faces a double risk to recovery from a disorderly Brexit as the coronavirus pandemic drags down growth, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has warned.



a car parked on a sidewalk: The UK car industry and food and textiles producers could be hit hardest by a disorderly Brexit, suffering a fall in exports of more than 30%.


© The Guardian
The UK car industry and food and textiles producers could be hit hardest by a disorderly Brexit, suffering a fall in exports of more than 30%.

On the eve of a critical EU leaders’ summit in Brussels, the influential Paris-based thinktank said the Covid crisis would further complicate a disorderly Brexit as companies were less prepared for the end of the transition period, having diverted attention away from leaving the EU.

It warned that failure to secure a free trade agreement before the UK leaves the Brexit transition period at the end of December would leave the economy 6.5% lower in the next few years than would have been the case if existing arrangements with the EU had been

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LONDON (AP) — A leading international economic watchdog urged the British government to conclude a free trade agreement with the European Union in the coming days and weeks to support the recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.



Tower Bridge and the skyscrapers of the Canary Wharf financial district, left, are seen at sunrise in London, Monday, Oct. 12, 2020.(AP Photo/Matt Dunham)


© Provided by Associated Press
Tower Bridge and the skyscrapers of the Canary Wharf financial district, left, are seen at sunrise in London, Monday, Oct. 12, 2020.(AP Photo/Matt Dunham)

In its latest survey of the the British economy, the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Wednesday that a trade deal that ensures a close relationship will minimize the costs of Brexit.

The OECD, which monitors and advises its 37 member countries, said the British economy will likely end this year 10.1% smaller than it started following the spring slump when a national lockdown was imposed to suppress the coronavirus outbreak.

Though the British economy recovered around half the output lost during the

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(Bloomberg) — Ireland’s government unleashed a record package of budget measures to counter the dual threats of Brexit and the pandemic, as new restrictions threaten to derail a nascent economic recovery.



a group of people walking on a city street: Shoppers walk along Donegall Place in view of the Belfast City Hall in Belfast, Northern Ireland, U.K., on Friday, Jan. 3, 2020. Nationalists who want to bring the island of Ireland together made advances in the U.K. general election while unionist parties that want to remain in the U.K.lost their majority. Brexit may have blurred the lines between political tribes in the U.K., but in Northern Ireland it's entrenched them even more.


© Bloomberg
Shoppers walk along Donegall Place in view of the Belfast City Hall in Belfast, Northern Ireland, U.K., on Friday, Jan. 3, 2020. Nationalists who want to bring the island of Ireland together made advances in the U.K. general election while unionist parties that want to remain in the U.K.lost their majority. Brexit may have blurred the lines between political tribes in the U.K., but in Northern Ireland it’s entrenched them even more.

Speaking to lawmakers in Dublin on Tuesday, Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe said the entire 2021 budget package is worth close to 18 billion euros ($21.2 billion), with most being earmarked for a fund to deal with the virus and Brexit, more health spending and other

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Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson wears a protective face covering as he arrives at the BBC in central London on October 4, 2020, to take part in the BBC political programme The Andrew Marr Show. - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and EU chief Ursula von der Leyen on Saturday asked their negotiators to "work intensively" to overcome differences to secure a post-Brexit free trade deal. (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS / AFP) (Photo by JUSTIN TALLIS/AFP via Getty Images)
Prime minister Boris Johnson. Photo: Justin Tallis/AFP via Getty Images

UK firms risk collapse on a “significant” scale if Brexit leaves them struggling to raise cash in the sectors most exposed to trade disruption, a think tank has warned.

A new report by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) sounds the alarm over the economic toll as Britain’s EU trade relationship unravels when it sees Brexit ‘go live’ at the end of the year. A transition period, keeping Britain closely tied to the bloc, expires on 31 December.

“Deal or no deal, substantial economic disruption in early 2021 is now likely unavoidable,” said the bleak IFS analysis published on Tuesday. “The majority of Brexit-related adjustment lies ahead.”

READ MORE: UK unemployment hits 1.5 million on leap in redundancies

Yet some consequences could last for decades, according to the study, with areas and workers linked to EU-reliant manufacturing, financial and business

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17 August 2020, Hamburg: Panoramic view over the river Elbe to the container gantry cranes of different terminals in the harbour of Hamburg. The Annual General Meeting of Hamburger Hafen und Logistik AG (HHLA) will take place on 20.08.2020. Photo: Christian Charisius/dpa (Photo by Christian Charisius/picture alliance via Getty Images)
Panoramic view over the river Elbe to the harbour of Hamburg. Photo: Christian Charisius/Picture Alliance via Getty Images

Financial market analysts are feeling a lot less upbeat in October about the German economy over the next six months, according to the latest economic sentiment survey from ZEW, the Leibniz-based Centre for European Economic Research. 

The ZEW Indicator of analysts’ economic expectations for the six months ahead dropped by 21.3 points to 56.1 points in October.

“The great euphoria witnessed in August and September seems to have evaporated,” said ZEW president Achim Wambach in a statement.

“The recent sharp rise in the number of COVID-19 cases has increased uncertainty about future economic development, as has the prospect of the UK leaving the EU without a trade deal,” Wambach said. He noted that the US presidential election “further fuels uncertainty.”

READ MORE: Boris Johnson tells Merkel ‘significant gaps’ in trade talks must

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This year, we have all been distracted by the overwhelming challenge of COVID-19, and rightly so. Widespread disruptions, dramatically changed customer behaviour and government restrictions have hit all areas of business since the start of 2020. The pandemic has reduced companies’ cash flow and bandwidth, leaving businesses extremely vulnerable to further disruptions. With what has already been a tumultuous year, there is another serious challenge looming; Brexit. 

While preoccupied with the pandemic many businesses have seemingly forgotten about the massive effect Britain leaving the EU will have. Others are kicking the can down the road, intentionally ignoring it until the drastic change is upon them. On September 24th, The British Chamber of Commerce said that only 52% of UK firms that trade internationally had carried out a risk assessment ahead of the end of the Brexit transition period on 1 January 2021. 

With less than

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Coronavirus and the possibility of second lockdowns is sure to give markets the jitters. Photo: Getty
Coronavirus and the possibility of second lockdowns is sure to give markets the jitters. Photo: Getty

Markets will be steered by coronavirus infection rates and whether fresh data will show a resurgent impact of COVID-19 on the global economy.

Meanwhile, investors will also eye the politics and stimulus talks in the run up to the US presidential election.

All focus will be on the closely followed International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) World Economic Outlook report, with expectations of a modest upgrade in 2020 figures to -4.9% and +5.4% in 2021.

“While we may see a modest upgrade to the 2020 number, expect much focus on the downside risk to the 2021 figure based on second wave challenges. A concerted push for fresh fiscal stimulus from central bank speakers looks likely too,” analysts at ING said.

On Tuesday, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) will release its latest analysis of

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On the Macro

It’s a busy week ahead on the economic calendar, with 68 stats in focus in the week ending 16th October. In the week prior, 53 stats had been in focus.

For the Dollar:

It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic data front.

On Monday and Tuesday, September inflation and wholesale inflation figures are due out.

The focus then shifts to manufacturing sector activity and labor market numbers on Thursday.

Expect the Philly FED Manufacturing PMI for October and the weekly initial jobless claims to impact.

At the end of the week, retail sales and industrial production figures are due out, along with October consumer sentiment numbers.

Expect the retail sales and prelim Michigan consumer Sentiment figures to have the greatest impact.

Away from the calendar, the next Presidential debate on 15th October will also provide direction. That is assuming that Trump decides to

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LONDON (Reuters) – Britain’s government on Sunday urged businesses to prepare for the end of the Brexit transition period, saying that they need to take action whether or not a trade deal with the European Union is clinched.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said Britain won’t extend the transition period, which ends on Dec 31, and that progress must be made to bridge significant gaps between the two sides in the coming days if a deal is to be struck.

The business ministry argues that most of what businesses need to do is the same regardless of the outcome of the negotiations and has planned a series of sector specific webinars in October.

“With just 81 days until the end of the transition period, businesses must act now to ensure they are ready for the UK’s new start come January,” said business minister Alok Sharma, who will write to businesses

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By Guy Faulconbridge, William James and John Chalmers

LONDON/BRUSSELS (Reuters) – European Union chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier wants a few more concessions from Britain before entering the last intense phase of negotiations on a trade deal, an EU diplomat said on Friday, as an Oct. 15 deadline looms.

The United Kingdom formally left the EU on Jan. 31, but more than fours years since voting 52%-48% for Brexit in a 2016 referendum, the two sides are haggling over a trade deal that would kick in when informal membership ends on Dec. 31.

The two chief negotiators, Barnier and Britain’s David Frost, say they are inching towards a deal, though they have underscored that important gaps remain on fishing, level playing field issues and governance. Both sides have no-deal plans.

Barnier, who left London on Friday just 12 hours after arriving, wants a few more concessions from Britain before entering

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