As predicted by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), a fresh low-pressure area formed over the North Bay of Bengal on Monday. It is expected to become more marked (intensified), the second successive system to do so, and sixth overall during August. This only goes on to indicate how strong and enduring the monsoon system has proved itself during the month.
Like its predecessor, it would take a couple of days to intensify and would bring widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand during next 3-4 days and over Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan from Wednesday to Friday. Isolated extremely heavy falls are likely over Odisha on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Remnant low dumps it down
Meanwhile, during the 24 hours ending on Monday morning, a remnant low-pressure area from an earlier well-marked low, a prodigious rain generator so far, triggered heavy to very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy falls over Gujarat State, while the rainfall was heavy over West Rajasthan, Jharkhand, and even in the South, over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.
Significant rainfall (in cm) recorded are: Jodia-34; Kadi-33; Tankara-27; Umerpada-26; Morbi-25; Becharaji-22; Saraswati-21; Kandla Aerodrome and Surendranagar-18; Rajkot, Viramgam, Meghraj, Bhabhar, Vadgam, Mansa, Aravli and Ahmadabad -12; Erinpura and Tiruttani-11; Bhuj, Mandal, New Kandla and Surat-10; Porbander, Fatepura, Khanpur and Sagbara-9; Diu and Detroj-8; Udaipur, Keshod, Tiruppattur, and Jamshedpur-7 each.
The monsoon trough is active and south of its normal position, which makes it very potent. It is likely to remain active during the next 2-3 days and support the spread of rainfall temporally and spatially. The IMD has forecast widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Gujarat State and South-West Rajasthan on Tuesday.
Monsoon trough active
The monsoon trough passed on Monday through the centre of the low over South-West Rajasthan and Ajmer, Tikamgarh, Sidhi, Ranchi, Kolkata and then East-South-Eastwards to the centre of the low over North Bay of Bengal. A non-seasonal north-south trough, also a weather-maker, ran down from Rayalaseema to South Coastal Tamil Nadu across interior Tamil Nadu.
Convergence of easterlies from the Bay and south-westerlies from the Arabian Sea will cause rainfall activity to increase over North-West India from Tuesday onwards with peak intensity on Wednesday and Thursday. Widespread rainfall has been forecast over North-West India with isolated heavy to very heavy falls from Wednesday to Friday.
More rains for North-West
Forecast for Tuesday said that heavy to very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy falls may lash Odisha; it would be heavy to very heavy over the plains of West Bengal and Gujarat State; heavy over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, West Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Assam, Meghalaya, Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan, Goa, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Kerala.
An extended forecast from August 29 to 31 spoke about the possibility of fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls over Central and adjoining North-West India and adjoining plains, the Maharashtra coast and the North-Eastern States. Isolated to scattered rainfall has been forecast over the rest of the country.